Spot bitcoin ETFs have now recorded more than $4 billion in net outflows in June alone, a record for the products that launched in early 2024 and were initially celebrated as a structural demand catalyst. Citi has responded by cutting its price forecasts for both bitcoin and ether, citing the reversal in ETF flows as a sign that institutional demand has softened meaningfully.
The dynamic is straightforward: ETF outflows mean the funds are selling bitcoin to meet redemptions, adding to market supply at the same time that newly mined coins continue to hit the market. When institutional demand runs below that combined supply, price pressure follows. StoneX analysts have framed the second half of 2026 as potentially one more quarter of pain before a meaningful bottom forms.