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Money Racket
Who Cashes In When Washington Moves
DEFENSEThe F-35 Sustainment Lock-In: Why the Pentagon's Most Expensive Program Keeps Paying One Company ForevertodayHEALTHCARE340B Under Fire: The Hospital Drug Discount Fight That Hits CVS and HCA Where It Hurts4 weeks agoTRADE & TARIFFSThe Tariff Refund Portal Is Open and Companies Are Cashing In — Nike and FedEx Are the Names to WatchyesterdayHEALTHCAREGLP-1 Coverage Mandate: The Federal Obesity Drug Windfall for Lilly and Novo4 weeks agoMARKETSSupreme Court Gives Trump FTC Firing Power — Antitrust Enforcement Just Got More PoliticalyesterdayHEALTHCAREFDA Accelerated Approval Reform: The Vertex Model Every Biotech Wants4 weeks agoTRADE & TARIFFSTrump's Fertilizer Tariff Suspension Cuts Input Costs for Farmers — and Squeezes Domestic ProducersyesterdayHEALTHCAREThe Medicare Drug Negotiation Trade: Who Gets Hurt When Washington Sets the Price4 weeks agoDEFENSEThe Nuclear Triad Upgrade Cycle: Three Legs, Three Winners, Decades of Locked-In SpendingyesterdayCRYPTOThe Anti-CBDC Play: No Digital Dollar Means Private Rails Win4 weeks agoDEFENSEWhen the Pentagon Classifies a Budget Line: The Black Budget Trade2 days agoCRYPTOThe Toll Booth at the Top of the Bitcoin ETF Stack4 weeks agoDEFENSENATO's 2% Mandate Is a Revenue Stream Disguised as an Alliance Obligation3 days agoCRYPTOThe IRS Closes the Crypto Wash-Sale Loophole — and Robinhood Collects the Toll4 weeks agoDEFENSEThe Drone Proliferation Trade: Washington's Shift to Attritable Unmanned Systems Creates a Recurring Revenue Stream3 days agoCRYPTOThe Debanking Era Is Over. HOOD and Block Are Next in Line at the Window.4 weeks agoDEFENSEThe Hypersonic Arms Race Has a Bottleneck — and Three Contractors Own It4 days agoCRYPTOMining the Grid: How EPA and Energy Policy Set the Spread for Proof-of-Work Miners3 weeks agoDEFENSEThe Pentagon's AI Mandate: Why Defense Data Platforms Are Now a Weapons Program5 days agoCRYPTOThe Stablecoin Bill: Who Controls the On-Ramp When Congress Licenses It3 weeks agoDEFENSEIron Dome and the FMS Pipeline: How Middle East Tensions Fund Missile Defense Primes5 days agoCRYPTOBitcoin as Reserve Asset: The Federal Legitimacy Trade3 weeks agoENERGYThe SPR Refill Trade: Who Gets Paid When Washington Buys Oil6 days agoCRYPTOThe SEC Retreat: How a Friendlier Regulator Unlocks Coinbase's Business Model3 weeks agoENERGYLNG Export Licenses: How a FERC Approval Mints a Monopolylast weekTECHThe Federal Data Center Mandate: How Washington's AI Spending Flows to Hardware3 weeks agoENERGYThe BLM Calendar That Moves COP and OXYlast weekTECHThe Domestic Equipment Play: How Foreign Chip Tool Restrictions Hand Applied Materials a Structural Edge3 weeks agoENERGYThe Permian Methane Rule: Why Stricter EPA Standards Are a HAL and SLB Giftlast weekTECHThe AI Diffusion Rule Is Picking Winners Inside the Chip Stack — and It Is Not Who You Think3 weeks agoENERGYThe Permit Logjam Is Breaking: Williams and Kinder Morgan Hold the Keyslast weekTECHThe HBM Monopoly: How Federal Memory Standards Lock In Micron3 weeks agoENERGYThe Tax Code Oil Patch: Who Gets Crushed If Washington Kills the IDC Deductionlast weekTECHThe Tariff Arbitrage: How Chip Import Duties Reshape the Foundry Map3 weeks agoENERGYThe Pipe Tax: How Section 232 Steel Tariffs Rewire U.S. Drilling Economicslast weekTECHThe Chip Stack Below the Pentagon's AI Buildup3 weeks agoENERGYSanctions Relief and the LNG Arbitrage: When State Department Decisions Move the Henry Hublast weekTECHThe CHIPS Act Subsidy Ladder: Who Actually Receives the $39 Billion3 weeks agoENERGYThe Nuclear Production Tax Credit Trade: Who Gets Paid to Keep Old Reactors Alivelast weekENERGYThe Grid Hardening Bill Trade: How Federal Transmission Investment Lifts the Equipment Makers2 weeks agoENERGYThe Uranium Supply Squeeze: How the Russian Import Ban Flows to Cameco and Centruslast weekTECHThe Export Control Squeeze: BIS Chip Rules Are Splitting the AI Hardware Market in Two2 weeks agoENERGYThe SMR Funding Funnel: How DOE's Loan Billions Flow to Small Modular Reactorslast weekENERGYThe Only U.S. HALEU Cascade: How Centrus Became the Gatekeeper to the Advanced Reactor Boom2 weeks agoENERGYWashington Plugs AI Into Reactors: The Behind-the-Meter Nuclear Offtake Trade2 weeks agoENERGYThe Grid Reliability Mandate: FERC's Capacity Market Rules Are Writing Checks to Nuclear2 weeks agoENERGYThe Nuclear Restart Order: Only One Operator Has Actually Flipped the Switch2 weeks ago
Data · Real returns, real catalysts

The Backtest

The whole Money Racket thesis, put to the test: when Washington moves, do the "who cashes in" stocks actually pay? Here's what a basket of the obvious beneficiaries returned from each real catalyst to today — the winners and the busts. Prices through Jul 2, 2026.

+948.0%
Best catalyst basket · U.S. restricts advanced-chip exports to China
14
Catalysts tested
11/14
Baskets that paid off
Tech

U.S. restricts advanced-chip exports to China

Since Oct 7, 2022
+948.0%basket

Sweeping export controls cut China off from advanced AI chips and the tools to make them — reshaping the entire semiconductor trade.

NVDA
+1535.6%
AMD
+825.5%
LRCX
+943.9%
AMAT
+688.0%
KLAC
+747.2%
Entry ≈ $12.08 → now $197.58 (NVDA). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Tech

CHIPS and Science Act signed

Since Aug 9, 2022
+767.8%basket

$52B in subsidies to reshore U.S. chip manufacturing — a direct tailwind for domestic fabs and equipment makers.

INTC
+251.8%
MU
+1487.1%
AMAT
+489.7%
LRCX
+654.5%
NVDA
+956.0%
Entry ≈ $36.11 → now $127.02 (INTC). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Tech

ChatGPT launches, the AI trade ignites

Since Nov 30, 2022
+581.4%basket

OpenAI's launch kicked off the AI-infrastructure supercycle — and made one chipmaker the most important stock on earth.

NVDA
+1070.5%
AMD
+621.4%
MSFT
+50.7%
AVGO
+583.0%
Entry ≈ $16.88 → now $197.58 (NVDA). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Finance

Silicon Valley Bank collapses

Since Mar 10, 2023
+151.3%basket

The second-largest U.S. bank failure sparked a flight to the money-center giants and a regional-bank rout.

JPM
+150.0%
BAC
+92.8%
GS
+211.2%
Entry ≈ $133.65 → now $334.07 (JPM). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Fed & Rates

The 2023 debt-ceiling deal

Since Jun 3, 2023
+137.9%basket

The Fiscal Responsibility Act ended the default standoff — clearing the overhang that had markets on edge.

JPM
+136.9%
GS
+203.4%
SPY
+73.5%
Entry ≈ $141.01 → now $334.07 (JPM). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Healthcare

FDA approves Zepbound for obesity

Since Nov 8, 2023
+110.3%basket

The FDA's nod for Lilly's tirzepatide in weight loss supercharged the GLP-1 gold rush.

LLY
+99.4%
NVO
-51.8%
VKTX
+283.2%
Entry ≈ $597.71 → now $1191.74 (LLY). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Crypto

SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETFs

Since Jan 10, 2024
+47.2%basket

After a decade of rejections, the SEC greenlit spot Bitcoin ETFs — legitimizing crypto and unleashing institutional flows.

COIN
+21.8%
MSTR
+92.4%
MARA
-29.6%
RIOT
+104.3%
Entry ≈ $130.78 → now $159.24 (COIN). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Defense

Russia invades Ukraine

Since Feb 24, 2022
+46.8%basket

The invasion triggered a global defense-spending surge and NATO restocking — the clearest 'buy the primes' catalyst in a generation.

LMT
+27.4%
RTX
+95.5%
NOC
+26.9%
GD
+59.2%
LHX
+25.1%
Entry ≈ $409.49 → now $521.82 (LMT). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Energy

Microsoft restarts Three Mile Island

Since Sep 20, 2024
+43.6%basket

Microsoft's deal to reopen a nuclear reactor for AI data centers made nuclear the hottest trade in energy.

CEG
-7.2%
VST
+42.0%
TLN
+96.0%
Entry ≈ $254.98 → now $236.5 (CEG). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Crypto

The 2024 Bitcoin halving

Since Apr 19, 2024
+24.6%basket

The programmed supply cut — historically the setup for crypto's biggest runs — reshaped the miners' economics.

MARA
-19.0%
RIOT
+162.4%
COIN
-24.5%
MSTR
-20.5%
Entry ≈ $16.5 → now $13.37 (MARA). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Markets

Trump wins the 2024 election

Since Nov 5, 2024
+4.0%basket

The 'Trump trade' repriced whole sectors overnight — crypto, private prisons, banks, and Tesla ripped.

COIN
-41.2%
MSTR
-65.5%
GEO
+19.6%
CXW
+37.7%
TSLA
+32.4%
JPM
+41.0%
Entry ≈ $270.74 → now $159.24 (COIN). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Energy

OPEC+ slashes oil output

Since Oct 5, 2022
-1.5%basket

The surprise 2-million-barrel production cut defied U.S. pressure and put a floor under crude — a windfall for the majors.

XOM
+34.9%
CVX
+3.5%
OXY
-31.3%
COP
-12.9%
Entry ≈ $101.03 → now $136.28 (XOM). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Energy

Inflation Reduction Act signed

Since Aug 16, 2022
-11.5%basket

The biggest climate package in U.S. history — hundreds of billions in clean-energy tax credits (45X, 45Q, ITC).

FSLR
+101.1%
ENPH
-83.5%
NEE
-3.7%
RUN
-60.0%
Entry ≈ $115.41 → now $232.08 (FSLR). Equal-weight basket, price return only.
Fed & Rates

The Fed's first rate cut

Since Sep 18, 2024
-21.3%basket

The Fed's jumbo 50bp cut ended the tightening cycle — a green light for rate-sensitive homebuilders.

DHI
-18.2%
LEN
-50.6%
PHM
-6.5%
HD
-10.0%
Entry ≈ $191.89 → now $157.06 (DHI). Equal-weight basket, price return only.

Returns from the weekly close on/after each catalyst date to the latest close, via Yahoo Finance. Equal-weight, price-return only (no dividends). Past performance is not indicative of future results, and this is not investment advice. The catalyst dates are real; the point is the mechanism — a policy move, and the stocks it touched.

Money Racket Pro

By the time it's news, the money's already moved.

The contract award, the executive order, the tariff cut — it mints winners before the financial press connects the dots. Pro gets you there first: what happened, who cashes in, and exactly what to watch — in a two-minute read.

Go Pro · $40/mo The policy-to-profit brief. Cancel anytime.
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