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Defense

NATO Members Racing to 3.5% GDP Defense Spending — U.S. Contractors Are the Biggest Beneficiaries

Five NATO allies have already hit the new 3.5% GDP spending target, and Trump is heading to Turkey to press for more — the order book for U.S. defense primes keeps growing.

Image: Money Racket
By at Money Racket·Jul 14, 2026

Five NATO members have hit the alliance's new 3.5% of GDP defense spending target years ahead of schedule, and President Trump is traveling to Turkey to press remaining members to accelerate their commitments. Combined with the Iran conflict escalating U.S. defense urgency, the political environment for sustained elevated defense budgets — both domestic and allied — is as strong as it has been in decades.

Who cashes in: Lockheed Martin (LMT) is the most direct beneficiary of allied spending surges — the F-35 is the platform of choice for NATO members upgrading air forces, and each new commitment translates to a named aircraft order within 12-24 months. RTX (RTX) sells Patriot missile systems and air defense equipment that European NATO members are prioritizing. General Dynamics (GD) benefits through its munitions and armored vehicle lines. For the Iran escalation angle specifically, L3Harris (LHX) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) have the electronic warfare and ISR systems most relevant to a Strait of Hormuz conflict scenario. Smaller names worth watching: Kratos Defense (KTOS) for drone systems and Mercury Systems (MRCY) for defense electronics — both move more on contract news than the mega-caps.

Every NATO member that hits 3.5% GDP spending is effectively writing a future check to Lockheed Martin — the F-35 is the default platform for allies who need to spend fast.

Who's exposed: European defense contractors — BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Leonardo — compete for the same allied budgets. They are not U.S.-listed in primary form, but the competition is real. Domestically, any defense company without a strong NATO-interoperable product line is at a relative disadvantage as allied procurement standardizes around U.S. platforms.

What to watch next: The formal NATO summit communiqué from Turkey. Specific country commitments to F-35 purchases or Patriot battery orders are the tells that convert political pledges into Lockheed and RTX backlog.

Source: original report ↗

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