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Trade & Tariffs

DeepSeek's Custom Chip Gambit Is a Direct Threat to Nvidia's China Revenue — and a Warning for AMD

If DeepSeek routes around U.S. export controls with its own silicon, it removes the last reason Chinese hyperscalers need American chips.

Image: Money Racket
By at Money Racket · Jul 12, 2026

DeepSeek, the Chinese AI lab, is reportedly developing a custom chip designed to bypass U.S. export sanctions, which would allow Chinese AI developers to train and run large models without purchasing Nvidia or AMD hardware. Nvidia stock has slid on the news.

Who's exposed: Nvidia (NVDA) is the most direct loser. China has historically been a significant revenue contributor, and even after export controls restricted the most advanced chips, Nvidia sold compliant downgraded versions into the market. If DeepSeek and other Chinese labs develop viable domestic alternatives, that residual China revenue — and the pricing power that comes with being the only game in town — erodes. AMD (AMD) faces the same dynamic but from a smaller China base. The export control regime was already compressing their addressable market in China; a domestic Chinese alternative accelerates that compression.

If Chinese labs build their own silicon, Nvidia loses not just China revenue but the leverage that comes from being the only viable option.

Who cashes in: Domestically, this development reinforces the argument for U.S. chip sovereignty and could accelerate CHIPS Act funding flows to Intel (INTC), which is building domestic fab capacity. Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) design custom AI silicon for U.S. hyperscalers — if Chinese labs go custom, U.S. hyperscalers may accelerate their own custom silicon programs, which flows to these two. The geopolitical tension also benefits defense-adjacent chip companies like Leidos (LDOS) and Palantir (PLTR) that sell AI infrastructure to the U.S. government.

What to watch next: Whether the Commerce Department responds with tighter controls on chip design tools and EDA software — that would be the next escalation. Also watch Nvidia's next earnings call for any guidance revision on China-segment revenue.

Source: original report ↗

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