The Commerce Department extended export controls to cover advanced AI models while authorizing release to specific trusted partners, according to Mayer Brown's analysis of the rule. This follows the existing chip export control framework and effectively creates a tiered system where the most capable AI — and by extension the hardware needed to run it — faces restrictions on where it can go.
Tech
Commerce Department's AI Model Export Controls Are the Next Nvidia Headwind — and AMD Isn't Immune
Extending export controls to advanced AI models tightens the screws on the chips that run them, keeping pressure on the two biggest AI accelerator makers.
1-YEAR MOVE
NVDA
▲7.9%
AMD
▲151.7%
AMZN
▲11.7%
MSFT
▼24.8%
PLTR
▼28.3%
| Ticker | Company | 1-year change |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | +7.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | +151.7% |
| AMZN | Amazon | +11.7% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | −24.8% |
| PLTR | Palantir | −28.3% |
Controlling the models is just controlling the chips by another name — and Nvidia's addressable market gets a little smaller every time Commerce adds a new rule.
Who's exposed: Nvidia NVDA is the most directly affected public company. Its H100 and successor chips are the primary hardware used to train and run the advanced AI models now subject to controls. Every new export restriction layer adds compliance cost and, more importantly, shrinks the addressable market for its highest-margin products. Advanced Micro Devices AMD faces the same dynamic with its MI-series AI accelerators — it's the number-two player in AI compute and subject to the same export licensing requirements. Both companies have already taken revenue hits from China chip restrictions; AI model controls extend the perimeter of what's restricted.
Who cashes in: Trusted-partner exemptions are the key. Countries on the approved list — likely close NATO allies and key Indo-Pacific partners — become more valuable AI infrastructure hubs. U.S. cloud providers Amazon Web Services AMZN, Microsoft Azure MSFT, and Google Cloud (GOOGL) that operate in approved jurisdictions can continue selling AI compute services internationally, giving them a structural advantage over Chinese cloud competitors. Palantir PLTR, which builds AI software for defense and intelligence, benefits from a framework that keeps advanced AI capabilities inside the U.S. national security perimeter.
What to watch next: The specific country tier list and model capability thresholds written into the rule. If the controls are drawn narrowly around frontier models, the revenue impact on Nvidia and AMD is manageable. If they sweep in a broader range of capable models, the addressable market shrinks further. Watch Nvidia's next earnings guidance for any updated China and restricted-market revenue figures.
Source: original report ↗
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