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Trade & Tariffs

The Treasury Rule That Picks a Winner Between ADM and Bunge

A carbon-scoring tweak to the 45Z clean fuel credit rewards domestic soybean crushing over global grain trading — and ADM built for exactly this fight while Bunge diversified away from it.

Image: Money Racket

By Evan at Money Racket · Mar 2, 2026

Treasury's proposed 45Z clean fuel production credit rules do something the old guidance never did: they strip indirect land-use-change (ILUC) penalties out of the carbon-intensity math and require every gallon's feedstock be grown in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada to qualify at all. That combination just repriced U.S. soybean oil — its carbon-intensity score reportedly lands around 27, pulling its credit value up near 49 cents a gallon, newly competitive with used cooking oil and tallow. For a $1-per-gallon-max credit that flows to whoever owns the crush plant and the renewable-diesel offtake, "who owns the North American crush network" just became the highest-value question in ag stocks.

Who cashes in:

Discussion

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