On March 19, 2026, the Fed, OCC, and FDIC re-proposed Basel III Endgame -- a softer version than the 2023 draft, cutting system-wide CET1 requirements by an estimated $87.7 billion rather than raising them. Banks won this round on paper. But the softer risk weights don't reverse a decade-long structural trend: capital-intensive middle-market and commercial real estate loans still carry more punitive treatment on a bank balance sheet than the same loan does sitting in an unregulated fund. Basel didn't need to get harsher to keep the disintermediation machine running -- it just needed to not get materially easier for banks to compete in the segments non-banks already own. Fed research has already tied private credit's market-share gains directly to bank retreat, and that trajectory doesn't reset with one comment period (due June 18, 2026).