The mechanism: Everyone prices Deere DE off steel costs and grain prices. That's the wrong model. Deere's real profit engine is a Washington-built replacement cycle: EPA's 2004 nonroad diesel rule forced every new tractor and combine engine through Tier 2/3/4 emissions tiers, obsoleting older equipment on a schedule set by regulators, not farmers. Layer on top the USDA's farm-income safety net — Title I commodity payments, ad hoc disaster aid, and the federally subsidized crop insurance program administered under the Federal Crop Insurance Act — and you get the actual driver of Deere's order book: how much cash Washington puts in a farmer's pocket determines whether that farmer trades in a combine. When Congress or USDA boosts support (disaster packages, Market Facilitation Program-style payments, higher insurance subsidy rates), equipment orders and precision-ag software attach rates both rise. When farm income is left to the open market, Deere's high-margin recurring revenue — the John Deere Operations Center subscriptions, guidance and data services — is what cushions the equipment cyclicality.