The mechanism: EPA's Phase 3 greenhouse gas rule for heavy-duty vehicles (finalized March 2024, published in the Federal Register that April) forces up to 60% CO2 reductions per vehicle class by model year 2032, phasing in from MY2027. Layer on California's Advanced Clean Trucks rule — which forces manufacturers to sell a rising percentage of zero-emission trucks in-state regardless of what CARB's separate fleet-purchase mandate does — and the capital math stops being theoretical. The catch: this isn't a subsidy story where a check clears. It's a capex-reallocation story. Whoever owns the terminal network, the diesel bays, the fueling infrastructure, and the depot real estate has to either electrify it or absorb higher-cost compliant diesel/hybrid tractors bought from OEMs passing through their own compliance costs. Asset-light brokers don't feel this. Asset-heavy line-haul and last-mile networks do.