The catalyst: In April 2024, EPA finalized a rule requiring existing coal plants running past 2039 to capture 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032 — effectively a capture-or-retire mandate. In June 2025, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin proposed repealing it entirely, and as of mid-2026 that repeal is still sitting at OMB, unfinished. That limbo is the trade. Utilities can't wait for Washington to make up its mind — integrated resource plans, PUC rate cases, and turbine orders lock in years ahead. So the companies making capex bets now, on a rule that might vanish, are the ones who'll look either brilliant or badly exposed once it's resolved (or challenged in court by blue states regardless of outcome).
Who cashes in: