The mechanism: In January 2026, the White House signed an executive order adjusting import treatment of processed critical minerals, layered on top of an EXIM Bank critical-minerals lending push that has already issued $14.8 billion in Letters of Interest — financing lithium extraction, rare-earth processing, and copper projects. The Department of Energy is separately teeing up nearly $1 billion in funding for mining, processing, and manufacturing tied to the battery and grid supply chain. The goal is explicit: break China's grip on processing (China controls 40-90% of global processing capacity even though it mines far less of the raw ore) and rebuild it domestically. That policy current runs through two very different metals — and two very different stock stories.
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