The catalyst. Every commercial jet engine sale to China runs through a Commerce Department choke point: the Export Administration Regulations' military end-use/end-user rule, which requires a validated license before CFM International — the GE Aerospace/Safran joint venture — can ship LEAP-1C turbofans for COMAC's C919. Washington has used that lever twice in the last year, suspending and then reinstating LEAP-1C license validity (most recently on a multi-year term tied to the broader US-China trade truce). The mechanism matters more than any single decision: as long as China's flagship narrowbody depends on a license Commerce can pause at will, COMAC cannot scale production independent of US policy — and GE keeps selling into the market Beijing most wants to exit.
Meanwhile China's answer, AECC's CJ-1000A turbofan, is now tracking toward certification around 2027 and service entry near 2030 — roughly eight years behind its original goal. Every year that gap holds is a year GE's LEAP franchise remains the only real high-bypass option for the world's fastest-growing narrowbody market, licensing risk notwithstanding.