The mechanism is simple and it's already law. A Section 232 proclamation put a 10% duty on imported softwood timber and lumber effective October 2025, layered on top of existing softwood lumber antidumping/countervailing duties that have run near 15% for years — pushing combined levies on Canadian softwood well past a quarter of landed cost. The same national-security statute extended 50% Section 232 steel tariffs to derivative appliances: refrigerators, dishwashers, washers, dryers, ranges, and freezers now carry duties on their steel and aluminum content. Two inputs, one law, and two very different piping systems for the cost to travel through.
Homebuilders sell forward. A builder signs a construction contract or locks a spec-home price today, then buys lumber and steel over the following six to twelve months. Rising input costs compress the builder's gross margin on that unit — real pain — but the next contract gets repriced to reflect the new cost basis. It's a lag, not a wall. Home Depot doesn't have that luxury. Its private-label SKUs (HDX, Glacier Bay, Husky) and its imported major-appliance lines sit on shelves with printed price tags and a retail customer who cross-shops Lowe's and Amazon on sight. Home Depot can absorb margin, delist the SKU, or eat a same-store-sales hit from sticker shock — but it cannot pre-sell next year's water heater at this year's price the way a builder pre-sells a house.