The mechanism. Every time the Pentagon fields a new interceptor, radar, or air-defense system, doctrine and law require it be shot at something real before it reaches troops. The Livermore-style "fly before you buy" mandate — rooted in the 1986 Live Fire Test and Evaluation statute and enforced by DOT&E — means every SM-6, PAC-3, NASAMS, or next-gen missile-defense round needs an aerial target drone to intercept. That target business is unglamorous, recurring, largely sole-sourced, and almost entirely owned by one contractor: Kratos Defense KTOS. Its BQM-167 (mimicking fighter jets) and BQM-177 (mimicking anti-ship cruise missiles) have racked up sole-source Air Force and Navy contracts for over a decade — Lot 20 alone was a $79.8 million sole-source award. Unlike a missile sale, which is lumpy and program-specific, target-drone demand tracks the entire live-fire testing tempo of the U.S. military — it scales with every system tested, not one weapon's fate.