The mechanism: Congress doesn't just fund the Pentagon's budget request — it routinely pads it, and munitions is where the padding lands hardest. The enacted FY2026 defense appropriations act added $1.3 billion above the Pentagon's own request for missile and munitions programs, on top of a $2.4 billion authorization bump in the NDAA, with lawmakers specifically directing $5.2 billion toward replenishing munitions stockpiles and $2.1 billion toward expanding production capacity (congress.gov, CRS Report R48860). Eight munitions programs — PAC-3, SM-6, THAAD, AMRAAM, Tomahawk, LRASM, JASSM-ER, and SM-3 IB — got locked into multiyear procurement contracts, which means production runs for years regardless of which administration or which news cycle is in charge.
That's the setup for a bet that doesn't require picking a winning missile: bet on the company whose hardware sits inside most of them.