The mechanism: The Inflation Reduction Act doesn't hit every blockbuster drug at once — it hits by launch date, moving down a clock that starts ticking the moment a small-molecule drug has been on the market nine years (or a biologic thirteen). Semaglutide, first approved as Ozempic in 2017, aged into eligibility on schedule: CMS already selected the full semaglutide family — Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus — for its second negotiation round, with negotiated Medicare prices (roughly $274/month, a 71% cut from list) taking effect January 2027. Tirzepatide, approved in 2022 as Mounjaro and 2023 as Zepbound, is younger by law. It isn't projected to reach a negotiation cycle until 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. Any legislative push to compress that IRA calendar — a bipartisan favorite pre-election — closes the gap for Lilly's newer franchise while doing nothing to un-negotiate Novo's price, which is already cemented. Novo eats the cut years before Lilly's flagship growth drug even enters the room.