The mechanism. On January 15, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security published a rule flipping the license-review posture for advanced computing exports to China and Macau — including Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X — from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review, conditioned on revenue-sharing (Nvidia at 25%, AMD at 15%) and other terms. That policy is a dial, not a switch. BIS can tighten the "case-by-case" conditions, expand the entity list, or slow-walk approvals at any point — and because the framework is discretionary rather than statutory, every quarter's China GPU revenue is effectively rented from Washington, not owned. The market has priced this as an AMD-vs-Nvidia "who wins China" story. It's actually a "who has more to lose" story, and the answer inverts the market-share narrative.