The mechanism: USPS just posted its fifth straight quarterly loss and Postmaster General David Steiner has told Congress the agency could run out of cash within twelve months without intervention. That's forcing lawmakers to seriously entertain postal reform for the first time in years — eliminating the Postal Regulatory Commission's oversight power, giving USPS pricing freedom, restructuring retiree-fund obligations, and floating (then walking back) privatization. Any of these outcomes changes who USPS buys transportation from and at what price. The market still reflexively treats this as a FedEx story, because FedEx ran USPS's air network for over 20 years. But that contract ended in September 2024 — USPS handed its primary air cargo business to UPS instead, an estimated $10 billion, five-and-a-half-year deal now carrying roughly 85% of USPS air volume. That flips the exposure. UPS, not FedEx, now has the freshest, largest, most rate-sensitive commercial relationship with a government mailer that is actively rewriting its own economics.