Washington's antitrust apparatus is a capital-routing machine. When the Federal Trade Commission blocks a mega-deal, it doesn't make billions disappear — it forces the acquirer to redeploy cash that was already mentally spent. The target's stock craters. The acquirer's balance sheet stays loaded. That capital has to go somewhere: buybacks, dividends, or smaller acquisitions that fly under the regulatory radar. Each of those paths creates a trade.
The mechanism works the same way every cycle. A tech giant announces a $10B-plus deal; regulators spend 12-18 months litigating; the deal dies. The acquirer has been sitting on ring-fenced cash and has held back competing transactions to avoid complicating the merger review. When the block lands, the constraint lifts. The war chest rotates.