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Crypto

The Stablecoin Bill: Who Controls the On-Ramp When Congress Licenses It

The GENIUS Act turns stablecoin issuance into a licensed utility — and the platforms already holding the permits are first in line to collect the tolls.

Image: Money Racket
By at Money Racket · Jun 8, 2026

Congress has done something it almost never does with financial technology: it moved fast. The GENIUS Act — signed into law in July 2025 — makes dollar-pegged stablecoin issuance a federally regulated activity. Only OCC-supervised nonbanks, federally chartered banks, and state-qualified issuers can legally issue payment stablecoins in the U.S. once implementing rules go final (deadline: January 2027). The mechanism is blunt: if you want to mint the digital dollars that settle crypto trades, pay merchants, or move between wallets, you need a license. That license is effectively a toll booth on the fastest-growing payments rail in the world. Stablecoin transaction volume hit a reported $33 trillion in 2025. The question Washington just answered is: who gets to own the booth?

Who cashes in

Every dollar of compliant USDC circulation that displaces non-compliant alternatives flows toward COIN's income statement.

COIN (Coinbase) is the clearest winner. Coinbase co-manages USDC with Circle under a revenue-sharing arrangement, and stablecoin revenue already accounts for roughly 20% of the company's total sales — approximately $305 million in a single quarter. The GENIUS Act structurally advantages USDC: as a U.S.-domiciled, OCC-supervised issuer, Circle/Coinbase rides the top tier of the licensing hierarchy while Tether remains outside it. Analysts project stablecoin revenue could grow two to seven times from here as institutional settlement volume migrates to compliant rails. Every dollar of compliant USDC circulation that displaces non-compliant alternatives flows toward COIN's income statement.

HOOD (Robinhood) enters this regime already holding money-transmitter licenses across U.S. jurisdictions and FinCEN registration as a money services business — the precise regulatory footprint the GENIUS Act rewards. Robinhood launched its own dollar-backed stablecoin USDG and has wired it to a 7% lending yield product. Robinhood's 25-million-plus funded accounts become a captive on-ramp for compliant stablecoin settlement. The regulatory moat around existing license holders is now statutory, not just practical.

XYZ (Block) is rolling out USDC payments through Cash App to its nearly 60 million users — a distribution channel competitors cannot replicate overnight. Block's existing payments infrastructure positions it as a volume conduit even if it does not issue its own stablecoin; every USDC transaction through Cash App is a fee-generating event on a licensed rail.

Who is exposed

MARA and RIOT (Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms) derive revenue from Bitcoin mining, not stablecoin settlement. The GENIUS Act does nothing for proof-of-work miners — in fact, a regulatory environment that elevates compliant settlement infrastructure over speculative crypto could redirect institutional capital toward COIN and HOOD at the expense of pure-play mining equities, which carry heavier energy and operational risk.

The deeper exposure belongs to platforms heavily dependent on Tether (USDT). Tether operates from El Salvador and has no path to GENIUS Act licensure as written. Pending legislation (S.3907) would require foreign-issued stablecoins to pass reserve audits or face U.S. exchange restrictions. Any platform structurally reliant on USDT volume faces a potential delistment-driven revenue hole.

What to watch

The implementing regulations deadline is January 2027. Watch the OCC's nonbank stablecoin charter guidance and whether Circle files for a federal license — that filing would be the starter gun. Monitor COIN's stablecoin revenue line each quarter; it is the cleanest real-time signal of whether compliant volume is actually accelerating. For HOOD, watch USDG circulation figures and whether the company pursues a federal issuer charter rather than relying on state licenses alone.

Source: original report ↗

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