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Energy

The Nuclear Production Tax Credit Trade: Who Gets Paid to Keep Old Reactors Alive

Section 45U of the Inflation Reduction Act turns low wholesale power prices into a federal subsidy check — and two companies own most of the reactors that collect it.

Image: Money Racket
By at Money Racket · Jun 20, 2026

The Inflation Reduction Act buried one of the most durable income streams in U.S. energy policy inside Section 45U: a Production Tax Credit for existing nuclear reactors that pays operators up to $15 per megawatt-hour whenever wholesale power prices fall below a statutory threshold. The mechanism is a price floor disguised as a tax credit. When spot electricity prices are soft, the federal government makes up the gap — dollar for dollar, up to that cap. When prices are high, the credit phases out. The result is a government-backstopped revenue guarantee for whoever owns the reactors, funded by taxpayers and designed to last through 2032.

Washington didn't move money here. It printed a floor under it.

When spot electricity prices are soft, the federal government makes up the gap — dollar for dollar, up to that cap. Washington didn't move money here. It printed a floor under it.

Who cashes in

CEG (Constellation Energy) is the single largest beneficiary. Constellation operates the biggest nuclear fleet in the United States — roughly 21 reactors across 14 plants — and its entire merchant power business is now partially insulated from downside price risk. Every low-price hour in PJM or MISO that would have crushed generation margin now triggers a Section 45U credit instead. The company's ability to lock in capacity and power purchase agreements above the threshold also means the credit functions as a margin kicker in soft markets and a backstop in weak ones.

VST (Vistra) runs the second-largest nuclear fleet, anchored by Comanche Peak in Texas and several Illinois plants acquired through its Energy Harbor merger. Vistra operates in both ERCOT and PJM markets, and the Section 45U PTC applies across all qualifying nuclear generation regardless of grid. In a Texas market prone to price spikes and collapses, the credit cushions the low-price periods that would otherwise punish baseload nuclear most.

CCJ (Cameco) doesn't collect the PTC directly, but the credit structurally extends reactor life — which extends uranium demand. Any utility choosing to run an existing reactor through 2032 rather than retire it needs fuel. Cameco, as the Western world's dominant uranium miner, is a leveraged derivative play on the policy.

LEU (Centrus Energy) enriches uranium for U.S. reactors and benefits from the same extended-life logic. A reactor kept online by Section 45U is a reactor buying enriched uranium for another decade.

Who is exposed

SMR (NuScale Power) and OKLO (Oklo) face a subtler headwind: the PTC makes existing nuclear cheaper to operate, which reduces the urgency for new capacity. Any utility choosing to run a 40-year-old reactor on a government subsidy has less economic pressure to sign a power purchase agreement with an advanced reactor startup. The policy that saves nuclear also delays the next generation of it.

What to watch

Track PJM and MISO spot power prices quarterly — when they fall, CEG and VST are collecting credits the market isn't pricing in real time. Watch CEG's license-extension filings with the NRC as confirmation that the company is betting the subsidy lasts. Any legislative effort to repeal or cap Section 45U is the primary risk to the entire trade.

Source: original report ↗

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